Description

Designed for you, if you are...

• A petroleum / reservoir /drilling engineer or geoscientist working in a multidiscipline team.

How we build your confidence

The benefits from attending

• Evaluate uncertainties for projects at different stages of the E&P lifecycle.
• Formulate problems probabilistically and systematically assess risks & uncertainties.
• Develop decision trees to lay-out the logic of the decision, evaluate the robustness of the decision and competently use the provided software.
• Understand the basics principles of petroleum economic analysis such as the time value of money, discounting and other project cash flow measures.
• Validate data using statistical distributions and combine them using both parametric and Monte- Carlo methods.
• Evaluate forecasts and present them effectively including the correlation between variables.
• Select the key variables in a probabilistic evaluation and manage certainty by acquiring additional data (appraisal) or design of interventions (contingency).
• Conduct probabilistic project scheduling and production forecasting so that a greater awareness of the critical factors to delivery become apparent.
• Integrate risk and uncertainty into key performance indicators.
• Select the key variables in a probabilistic evaluation and manage certainty by acquiring additional data (appraisal) or design of interventions (contingency).
• Conduct probabilistic project scheduling and production forecasting so that a greater awareness of the critical factors to delivery become apparent.
• Integrate risk and uncertainty into key economic performance indicators.

Topics

• Introduction
• Risk and uncertainty fundamentals, definitions
• Bayesian Revision - Value of additional data
• Estimating probabilities and ranges - Improving estimates by calibration
• Finding a deterministic value that represents a distribution.
• Combining distributions - Monte-Carlo Method - Impact of portfolio choices
• Heuristics of probability estimation - Ground rules for estimation
• Correlations and dependent variables - How best to incorporate them.
• Influence diagrams and the Boston Squares to identify key risks.
• Importance - The variables to focus upon
• The value of information - Value of study, cost of delay, opportunity cost.
• The concept of value
• Analysis of the tools required to evaluate the worth of a business opportunity.
• Basic process of economic evaluation, inflation, time value of money, nominal & effective interest rates, discounted cash flow, net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), profitability index (PI), cumulative net cash-flow
• The value of intervention
• Intervention planning and flexibility
• Production forecasting
• How to improve the process by learning - Train wrecks
• Resource assessment - Categorisation and classification of petroleum resources
• Risk management
• Cost uncertainty
• Schedule uncertainty and critical path

Customer Feedback