« Back to course list

ONLINE: Managing Uncertainty and Risk for Value (PBM938)

  • To be announced for 2023


This course focusses on the fundamentals of estimating risk and uncertainty to improve decision making and introduces both probabilistic and deterministic approaches.
Included is the examination of factors contributing to uncertainty throughout subsurface, drilling, facilities, production cost and economics. The aim is to deepen understanding of uncertainties in order to build successful decision making and avoid unwanted surprises in delivering accurate estimates of production, reserves and value.

Course Structure: 5 modules of 3 hours each, delivered over 5 days
Each day will consist of 1 module which will be no more than 3 hours in length with multiple breaks.

Course Level: Skill
Duration: 5 days
Instructor: Pete Smith

Designed for you, if you are...

  • A petroleum / reservoir / drilling engineer or geoscientist working in a multidiscipline team

How we build your confidence

This is a five-session online course with lectures supported and illustrated by worked examples, case studies and follow-up exercises, group exercises and quizzes to give assurance that key learnings are accomplished.

Since participants may have different levels of background in petroleum economics and statistics there is additionally pre- reading modules to ensure that the fundamental understanding of these topics has been established prior to the course.

The benefits from attending

By the end of the course you will feel confident in:

  • Handling the many risks and uncertainties involved in reservoir development and management
  • Moreover, by identifying the most important risks and uncertainties you will be able to develop contingencies that maintain and enhance project value


Session 1
  • Introduction
  • Value - measures of project value - strategic fit, NPV and IRR
  • Making decisions - use of decision trees/ link between studies and decisions
  • Risk and uncertainty fundamentals, definitions

Session 2
  • Statistics and distributions - key types and parameters
  • Combining distributions - parametric and Monte Carlo methods
  • Geological risking - Bayes theory

Session 3
  • Estimating probabilities and ranges - improving estimates by calibration
  • Heuristics of probability estimation - ground rules for estimation
  • Influence diagrams and the Boston Squares to identify key risks

Session 4
  • Combining distributions - Monte-Carlo method - impact on portfolio choices in practice
  • Correlations and dependent variables - how best to incorporate them
  • Finding out what is important - the variables to focus upon

Session 5
  • The value of information - value of study, cost of delay, opportunity cost
  • The value of intervention, planning and flexibility
  • Volumetric portfolio resource aggregation

Customer Feedback

"Excellent course content for all O&G professionals (exploration, reservoir, development, etc.)." - Senior Petrophysicist at ENI

"The instructor and material were excellent. A very good and helpful course. Helped me understand how exploration department came up with estimates of reserves etc. in our organisation." - Exploration Geologist at Staatsolie

"The quizzes are very good and force people to go over and reflect past days learning. All BP courses should follow this model." - Reservoir Engineer at BP

"I really enjoyed this course. Very well documented, with a lot of examples and exercises which helped us to have a better understanding about the subjects. The schedule was respected, and I have to say that this class was a very organized one because each and every day we know what we were going to do." - Reservoir Engineer at OMV Petrom




HOT Engineering GmbH   Tel: +43 3842 43 0 53-0   Fax +43 3842 43 0 53-1   hot@hoteng.com